ZeroCarbonBritain Hourly Model
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ZERO CARBON BRITAIN HOURLY MODEL v3
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Note: This hourly energy model is designed to be used in conjunction with the ZeroCarbonBritain matrix spreadsheet, which both provides background calculation for many of the inputs and makes use of the model outputs.

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SUPPLY
The following renewable supply mix is detailed in full on page 57-61 of the ZCB report. Capacities reflect proportions of available resource e.g: the Offshore Valuation Group report (2010) estimates that we could produce more than 1,500 TWh/year from floating offshore wind turbines, 400 TWh/year from fixed offshore wind turbines, 40 TWh/year from wave power and 116 TWh/year from tidal stream. The ZCB scenario suggests that only a proportion of this potential would need to be developed.

GW cap. TWh/yr CF availability
Offshore wind {{ o.supply.total_offshore_wind | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.offshore_wind_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Onshore wind {{ o.supply.total_onshore_wind | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.onshore_wind_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Wave {{ o.supply.total_wave | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.wave_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Tidal (range + stream) {{ o.supply.total_tidal | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.tidal_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Hydro {{ o.supply.total_hydro | format_energy }} TWh/yr
Solar PV {{ o.supply.total_solarpv | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.solarpv_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Solar Thermal (heat) {{ o.supply.total_solarthermal | format_energy }} TWh/yr {{ o.supply.solarthermal_capacity_factor | format_prc }} %
Geo Thermal Electricity {{ o.supply.total_geothermal_elec | format_energy }} TWh/yr
Geo Thermal Heat {{ o.supply.total_geothermal_heat | format_energy }} TWh/yr
Nuclear {{ o.supply.total_nuclear | format_energy }} TWh/yr
Grid loss
Biomass for biogas TWh
Anaerobic digestion efficiency
* Solar thermal is given in GW solar PV equivalent, actual capacity is much smaller and capacity factor higher.
LIGHTING, APPLIANCES & COOKING
The ZCB scenario targets energy demand reductions in line with DECC 2050 level 2-4 for domestic cooking, level 3 for domestic lighting & appliances and level 4 for services catering, lighting & appliances. Cooling demand is reduced in line with DECC 2050 level 3/4 & improved cooling efficiency. Energy demands include adjustment for larger 2030 population. See methodology document for full detail. Reductions here are shown relative to 2018 rather than 2007 baseline used in report.

Annual demand % Reduction vs 2018
Domestic Lighting & Appliances TWh/yr {{ (1-i.LAC.domestic.lighting_and_appliances_TWhy/76.6)*100 | toFixed(0) }}% {{ o.LAC.domestic_appliances_kwh | toFixed(0) }} kWh/household
Domestic Cooking TWh/yr {{ (1-i.LAC.domestic.cooking_TWhy/13.2)*100 | toFixed(0) }}% {{ o.LAC.domestic_cooking_kwh | toFixed(0) }} kWh/household
Services Lighting & Appliances TWh/yr {{ (1-i.LAC.services.lighting_and_appliances_TWhy/43.6)*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
Services Catering TWh/yr {{ (1-i.LAC.services.catering_TWhy/25.3)*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
Services Cooling TWh/yr {{ (1-i.LAC.services.cooling_TWhy/9)*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
SPACE / WATER HEAT DEMAND
The ZCB scenario targets the same space heating building heat loss factors as given in the DECC 2050 level 4 scenario. Water heating demand is in line with DECC 2050 level 3 revised upwards to account for the larger 2030 population. See methodology document for full detail. Reductions here are shown relative to 2018 rather than 2007 baseline used in report.

1. Space Heating

Space heating base temperature: K
Uses 16.7°C as average internal temp. and gains& losses from DECC 2050

Annual demand % Reduction vs 2018
Domestic GW/K {{ o.space_heating.total_domestic_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(2) }} TWh/yr {{ (1.0-((o.space_heating.total_domestic_demand*0.0001) / 312.2))*100 | toFixed(0) }}% {{ o.space_heating.domestic_kwh | toFixed(0) }} kWh/household
Services GW/K {{ o.space_heating.total_services_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(2) }} TWh/yr {{ (1.0-((o.space_heating.total_services_demand*0.0001) / 112.5))*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
Industry GW/K {{ o.space_heating.total_industry_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(2) }} TWh/yr {{ (1.0-((o.space_heating.total_industry_demand*0.0001) / 22.5))*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
Combined {{ o.space_heating.demand_GWK | toFixed(3) }} GW/K {{ o.space_heating.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr {{ (1.0-((o.space_heating.total_demand*0.0001)/(312.2+112.5+22.5)))*100 | toFixed(0) }}%

2. Water Heating

Domestic TWh {{ (1-i.water_heating.domestic_TWhy/82.2)*100 | toFixed(0) }}% {{ o.water_heating.domestic_kwh | toFixed(0) }} kWh/household
Services TWh {{ (1-i.water_heating.services_TWhy/15.9)*100 | toFixed(0) }}%
Combined {{ o.water_heating.demand_TWhy | toFixed(1) }} TWh
HEATING SYSTEMS
Share Heat demand Efficiency Fuel demand
{{ system.name }} % {{ o.heating_systems[index].heat_demand | format_energy }} TWh/yr % {{ o.heating_systems[index].fuel_demand | format_energy }} TWh/yr
TRANSPORT
Miles travelled per transport mode include a reduction in total miles travelled per person and modal shifts towards more public transport, cycling and less aviation. For comparison you might like to try entering the miles per person in 2016 to see the result without these changes: Walking:198, Cycling:48, Rail:754, Bus:325, Motorbike:46, Cars&Vans:6299, Aviation:3438

Load factors for each transport mode are also increased. The 2016 load factors for comparison are:
Rail:0.324, Bus:0.1432, Motorbike:1.071, Cars&Vans:0.3288, Aviation:0.85

See methodology document for detailed discussion of the modal shifts in the ZCB scenario.

The mechanical kWh per person km at full occupancy is based on a calculated fleet average, given real world data on a range of available vehicles today. Electric vehicles include battery charging, motor inverter and motor losses. Hydrogen include: fuel cell, transportation, compression, motor & inverter losses. Internal combustion engines include engine losses. See more detailed notes on this here.

Miles travelled per transport mode:

{{ key }}
{{ mode.km_pp | toFixed(0) }} km
Mechanical kWh/p.km full
Electric kWh/p.km full {{ mode.EV.kwhppkm_full | toFixed(3) }}
Hydrogen kWh/p.km full {{ mode.H2.kwhppkm_full | toFixed(3) }}
ICE kWh/p.km full {{ mode.IC.kwhppkm_full | toFixed(3) }}
Load factor
Electric kWh/p.km {{ mode.EV.kwhppkm | toFixed(3) }}
Hydrogen kWh/p.km {{ mode.H2.kwhppkm | toFixed(3) }}
ICE kWh/p.km {{ mode.IC.kwhppkm | toFixed(3) }}
Prc electric
Prc hydrogen
Prc synth fuel
Electric TWh national {{ mode.EV.TWh | toFixed(1) }}
Hydrogen TWh national {{ mode.H2.TWh | toFixed(1) }}
ICE TWh national {{ mode.IC.TWh | toFixed(1) }}
Rail freight electricity demand TWh/yr
Freight battery EV electricity demand TWh/yr
Freight hydrogen demand TWh/yr
Freight synth fuel demand TWh/yr
Total transport BEV electricity demand {{ o.transport.fuel_totals.BEV | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Total transport direct electricity demand (trains) {{ o.transport.fuel_totals.DEV | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Total transport hydrogen demand {{ o.transport.fuel_totals.H2 | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Total transport synth fuel demand {{ o.transport.fuel_totals.IC | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Total useable EV battery capacity
(15 million EV's with ~30 kWh batteries + 70k 900 kWh HGV's)
GWh
Maximum rate of charge
1/7th of total stored capacity
GW
Enable smart charging?
Smart charging algorithm
Enable vehicle to grid?
Vehicle to grid discharge algorithm
See notes on sythetic fuel production using fischer-tropsch process here https://trystanlea.org.uk/zcb_fischer_tropsch
INDUSTRY
The ZCB scenario bases industrial energy demand on 2007 levels adjusted for 2030 population and a 25% reduction in energy intensity, this gives a total industrial energy demand of 331 TWh × 1.16 × 0.75 = 288 TWh. Industrial energy demand in 2018 was actually 25% below this at 216 TWh, one way of looking at this is that the ZCB scenario includes some onshoring of industry and energy associated with goods that are currently imported.

Industrial energy use is dealt with in the scenario at a high level and a cautious approach is taken. Industry energy demand is an area highlighted for further research within the ZeroCarbonBritain scenario.

Energy Demand Elec CH4 H2 Synth
Fuel
Biomass DSR
EL>CH4
DSR
EL>H2
High temp process TWh % % % % % % %
Low temp process TWh % % % % % % %
Drying and seperation TWh % % % % % % %
Other heat TWh % % % % % % %
Motors TWh 100%
Compressed air TWh 100%
Lighting TWh 100%
Refrigeration TWh 100%
Other non heat TWh % % % % %
DSR options implement a substitutable heat source, direct electricity is used when excess renewable energy is available, methane or hydrogen is used when direct electricity supply is not sufficient.

Total demand by fuel:

Electricity{{ o.industry.total_elec_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Methane{{ o.industry.total_methane_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Hydrogen{{ o.industry.total_hydrogen_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Liquid synth fuel{{ o.industry.total_synth_fuel_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Solid biomass{{ o.industry.total_biomass_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Total demand (in){{ o.industry.total_demand | toFixed(1) }} TWh
Total demand (out){{ o.industry.total_demand_check*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh
ELECTRIC STORAGE
Enable electricity storage?
Electricity storage capacity GWh ({{ o.electric_storage.kwh_per_household | toFixed(1) }} kWh/household)
Electricity charge capacity GW (Used: {{ o.electric_storage.max_charge | toFixed(0) }} GW)
Electricity discharge capacity GW (Used: {{ o.electric_storage.max_discharge | toFixed(0) }} GW)
Charge efficiency %
Discharge efficiency %
Total charge {{ o.electric_storage.total_charge*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }} TWh/yr
Total discharge {{ o.electric_storage.total_discharge*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }} TWh/yr
Storage losses {{ o.total_losses.electric_storage*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }} TWh/yr
Number of cycles (total discharge / storage capacity) {{ o.electric_storage.cycles_per_year | toFixed(1) }} cycles/yr
STORAGE & BACKUP
Select dispatchable generation capacity to meet bulk of backup requirement. Tune electrolysis & methanation capacity and respective storage capacities to meet given hydrogen, synth fuel and synthetic methane demand. Select 'Stores' tab above to see store levels, ensure that the stores dont get depleted or over-fill. 50 GWh of generic storage is equivalent to a ~1.7 kWh battery store per household.

For background notes on the sabatier process see:
https://trystanlea.org.uk/zcb_sabatier_process

Capacity
Dispatchable generation
E.g High efficiency and high flexibility CCGT gas turbines
GW Efficiency (HHV)
Electrolysis GW Efficiency (HHV)
Hydrogen storage
GWh chemical energy HHV
GWh Lower limit (Fraction)
Methanation (without heat integration)
Capacity given is for H2 feed to process
GW
Power to X: Methane and Liquids overall capacity GW (elec)
Power to X: Methane
E.g Helmeth SOEC technology. Includes DAC of CO2 using waste heat.
% Efficiency (HHV)
Power to X: Liquids
'E.g Power-to-Liquids Potentials and Perspectives for the Future Supply of Renewable Aviation Fuel'
% Efficiency (HHV)
Methane storage
GWh chemical energy HHV
GWh Store start GWh
Synth Fuel
Capacity given is for H2 feed to process
GW Store start GWh
FT process: biomass required GWh/GWh fuel FT process: hydrogen required GWh/GWh fuel
Use flat demand profiles
LAND USE{{ o.land_use.total_prc*100 | toFixed(1) }} %
Land area Carbon
sequestration
Existing natural broadleaf woodland {{ i.land_use.existing_natural_broadleaf_woodland }} kha
Existing natural coniferous woodland {{ i.land_use.existing_natural_coniferous_woodland }} kha
Existing productive broadleaf woodland {{ i.land_use.existing_productive_broadleaf_woodland }} kha {{ o.carbon_sequestration.timber_products.existing_productive_broadleaf_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.biochar.existing_productive_broadleaf_woodland | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
Existing productive coniferous woodland {{ i.land_use.existing_productive_coniferous_woodland }} kha {{ o.carbon_sequestration.timber_products.existing_productive_coniferous_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.biochar.existing_productive_coniferous_woodland | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
New natural broadleaf woodland kha {{ o.carbon_sequestration.reforestation.new_natural_broadleaf_woodland | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
New natural coniferous woodland kha {{ o.carbon_sequestration.reforestation.new_natural_coniferous_woodland | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
New productive broadleaf woodland kha {{ (o.carbon_sequestration.reforestation.new_productive_broadleaf_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.timber_products.new_productive_broadleaf_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.biochar.new_productive_broadleaf_woodland) | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
New productive coniferous woodland kha {{ (o.carbon_sequestration.reforestation.new_productive_coniferous_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.timber_products.new_productive_coniferous_woodland+o.carbon_sequestration.biochar.new_productive_coniferous_woodland) | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
Short rotation forestry (30% wood products & 65% biomass heat) kha {{ (o.carbon_sequestration.reforestation.short_rotation_forestry+o.carbon_sequestration.timber_products.short_rotation_forestry+o.carbon_sequestration.biochar.short_rotation_forestry) | toFixed(1) }} MtCO2e/yr
Short rotation coppice (biomass heat) {{ i.land_use.short_rotation_coppice | toFixed(0) }} kha
Perrennial grass miscanthus (liquid biofuels) {{ i.land_use.perrennial_grass_miscanthus | toFixed(0) }} kha
Rotational grass ryegrass (biogas) {{ i.land_use.rotational_grass_ryegrass | toFixed(0) }} kha
Annual grass hemp (insulation & other materials) kha
Intensive and rough grazing (Currently 11,522 kha) kha
Food crops (Currently 2,557 kha) kha
Feed crops for livestock (Currently 2,557 kha) kha
Mountain heath and bog kha
Semi natural grassland kha
Coastal and freshwater kha
Urban areas kha
Total land used in scenario {{ o.land_use.total | toFixed(0) }} kha
Remaining land available {{ o.land_use.available | toFixed(0) }} kha
Total UK land area 24728 kha
Percentage of UK land area used {{ o.land_use.total_prc*100 | toFixed(1) }} %
EMISSIONS BALANCE{{ o.emissions_balance.total | toFixed(2) }} MtCO2e/yr
MtCO2e/yr
Fossil fuels: Gas {{ i.emissions_balance.fossil_fuel_gas | toFixed(2) }}
Fossil fuels: Oil {{ i.emissions_balance.fossil_fuel_oil | toFixed(2) }}
Disused mines
Gas leakage
Refrigerants
Other foams, solvents & aerosols
Iron and steel process emissions
Cement process emissions
Lime process emissions
Soda ash process emissions
Glass process emissions
Aluminium process emissions
Other process emissions
Agriculture total
Biomass burning
Reforestation {{ i.emissions_balance.reforestation | toFixed(2) }}
Harvested wood {{ i.emissions_balance.harvested_wood | toFixed(2) }}
Wetlands
Settlements
Landfill
Waste water handling
Waste incineration
International aviation bunkers {{ i.emissions_balance.international_aviation_bunkers | toFixed(2) }}
Biochar carbon capture {{ i.emissions_balance.biochar_carbon_capture | toFixed(2) }}
Landfill carbon capture
Total balance {{ o.emissions_balance.total | toFixed(2) }} MtCO2e/yr
FINAL SUPPLY DEMAND MATCHING {{ (100*o.balance.final_elec_balance_positive/i.hours) | toFixed(3) }}%

Total supply: {{ o.balance.total_supply*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Total demand: {{ o.balance.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Primary energy factor: {{ o.balance.primary_energy_factor | toFixed(2) }}

Exess generation: {{ o.balance.total_exess*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Unmet demand: {{ o.balance.total_unmet_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }} TWh

Land use total: {{ o.land_use.total | toFixed(0) }} kha

Land available: {{ o.land_use.available | toFixed(0) }} kha

Emissions balance {{ o.emissions_balance.total | toFixed(2) }}

Grid CO2 intensity {{ o.emissions_balance.grid_co2_intensity | toFixed(0) }} gCO2/kWh

Energy stack units:

Comparison table for direct reference with original spreadsheet

hours percent TWh/yr
Total hours of simulation {{ i.hours }} 100%
Initial el. balance positive {{ o.balance.initial_elec_balance_positive }} {{ (100*o.balance.initial_elec_balance_positive/i.hours) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.balance.total_initial_elec_balance_positive*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Final el. balance negative {{ o.balance.final_elec_balance_negative }} {{ (100*o.balance.final_elec_balance_negative/i.hours) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.balance.total_final_elec_balance_negative*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }}
Final el. balance positive {{ o.balance.final_elec_balance_positive }} {{ (100*o.balance.final_elec_balance_positive/i.hours) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.balance.total_final_elec_balance_positive*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Unmet heat demand {{ o.unmet_heat_demand_count }} {{ o.heat.total_unmet_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Min Min % Max
Hydrogen Store {{ o.hydrogen.min_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh {{ (100*o.hydrogen.min_SOC /i.hydrogen.storage_capacity_GWh) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.hydrogen.max_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh
Liquid fuel Store {{ o.synth_fuel.store_min_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh {{ (100*o.synth_fuel.store_min_SOC/o.synth_fuel.store_max_SOC) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.synth_fuel.store_max_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh
Methane Store {{ o.methane.min_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh {{ (100*o.methane.min_SOC/i.methane.storage_capacity_GWh) | toFixed(1) }}% {{ o.methane.max_SOC | toFixed(0) }} GWh
Production Demand
Hydrogen {{ o.hydrogen.total_produced*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} {{ o.hydrogen.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Liquid fuel {{ o.synth_fuel.total_produced*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} {{ o.synth_fuel.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Methane {{ o.methane.total_produced*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} {{ o.methane.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Hydrogen Electrolysis capacity factor {{ o.hydrogen.electrolysis_capacity_factor | toFixed(1) }}%
Power-to-X capacity factor {{ o.power_to_X.capacity_factor | toFixed(1) }}%
Biomass for biogas (includes biomass from wastes) {{ i.biogas.biomass_for_biogas | toFixed(1) }}
Of which rotational grasses (e.g ryegrass) {{ o.biomass.grass_for_biogas | toFixed(1) }}
Biomass for synth fuel (e.g SRC, miscanthus) {{ o.synth_fuel.total_biomass_used*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Biomass direct heat (SRF & SRC) {{ o.biomass.total_direct_use*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Electricity from dispatchable (TWh) {{ o.electric_backup.total_methane_turbine_output*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }}
Max Dispatchable Output (GW) {{ o.electric_backup.max_methane_turbine_output | toFixed(1) }} GW {{ o.electric_backup.max_methane_turbine_output_date }}
Max Electricity Shortfall (GW) {{ o.electric_backup.max_shortfall | toFixed(1) }} GW {{ o.electric_backup.max_shortfall_date }}
Note: The main ZCB scenario targets a 99.9% supply/demand matching level. Note that the max short fall with dispatchable capacity sized to meet this matching level can be quite high. There are several limitations with the model that could in reality reduce this maximum shortfall without increasing the capacity of dispatchable generation, including more sophisticated battery storage algorithms and higher levels of demand-side-response.
SCALED TO VILLAGE, TOWN, CITY or COUNTRY
Number of households:

SupplyStorage, Gas & Liquids
Onshore Wind Electrolysis capacity Hydrogen storage
Offshore Wind Methanation capacity IHTEM capacity
Solar PV Methane storage
Hydro Synth fuel prod capacity
Wave Elec storage cap
Tidal BEV storage cap
Nuclear
Methane turbine
MANUFACTURING ENERGY{{ o.EE.total | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Industrial energy use is dealt with above at a high level and a cautious approach is taken. It is part of the scenario that we would like to develop in more detail. The following makes a start on exploring the manufacturing energy required to build key elements of the renewable energy supply infrastructure: Offshore wind, Onshore wind and Solar PV. We can get an initial indication from this of the proportion of the total industrial energy demand modelled above that would relate to the manufacture of these technologies.

For more detail on the calculations below including sources see https://trystanlea.org.uk/zcb_industry

Embodied EnergyLifespanAnnual Demand
Offshore wind GWh/GW years {{ o.EE.offshorewind | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Onshore wind GWh/GW years {{ o.EE.onshorewind | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Solar PV GWh/GW years {{ o.EE.solarpv | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr
Total Annual Demand{{ o.EE.total | toFixed(1) }} TWh/yr ({{ o.EE.prc_of_industry_demand | toFixed(1) }}% of industry demand)