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The Offshore Valuation Group report (2010) estimates a potential to produce more than 1,500 TWh/year from floating offshore wind turbines, 400 TWh/year from fixed offshore wind turbines, 40 TWh/year from wave power and 116 TWh/year from tidal stream. The ZCB scenario suggests that only a proportion of this potential would need to be developed.

The ZCB scenario targets energy demand reductions in line with DECC 2050 level 2-4 for domestic cooking, level 3 for domestic lighting & appliances and level 4 for services catering, lighting & appliances. Cooling demand is reduced in line with DECC 2050 level 3/4 & improved cooling efficiency. Energy demands include adjustment for larger 2030 population. See methodology document for full detail. Reductions here are shown relative to 2018 rather than 2007 baseline used in report.

The ZCB scenario targets the same space heating building heat loss factors as given in the DECC 2050 level 4 scenario. Water heating demand is in line with DECC 2050 level 3 revised upwards to account for the larger 2030 population. See methodology document for full detail. Reductions here are shown relative to 2018 rather than 2007 baseline used in report.

Miles travelled per transport mode include a reduction in total miles travelled per person and modal shifts towards more public transport, cycling and less aviation. For comparison you might like to try entering the miles per person in 2016 to see the result without these changes: Walking:198, Cycling:48, Rail:754, Bus:325, Motorbike:46, Cars&Vans:6299, Aviation:3438

Load factors for each transport mode are also increased. The 2016 load factors for comparison are:
Rail:0.324, Bus:0.1432, Motorbike:1.071, Cars&Vans:0.3288, Aviation:0.85

See methodology document for detailed discussion of the modal shifts in the ZCB scenario.

The mechanical kWh per person km at full occupancy is based on a calculated fleet average, given real world data on a range of available vehicles today. Electric vehicles include battery charging, motor inverter and motor losses. Hydrogen include: fuel cell, transportation, compression, motor & inverter losses. Internal combustion engines include engine losses. See more detailed notes on this here.

The ZCB scenario bases industrial energy demand on 2007 levels adjusted for 2030 population and a 25% reduction in energy intensity, this gives a total industrial energy demand of 331 TWh × 1.16 × 0.75 = 288 TWh. Industrial energy demand in 2018 was actually 25% below this at 216 TWh, one way of looking at this is that the ZCB scenario includes some onshoring of industry and energy associated with goods that are currently imported.

Industrial energy use is dealt with in the scenario at a high level and a cautious approach is taken. Industry energy demand is an area highlighted for further research within the ZeroCarbonBritain scenario.

Select from different types of dispatchable electricity supply.

Tune electrolysis & methanation capacity and respective storage capacities to meet given hydrogen, synth fuel and synthetic methane demand. Select 'Stores' tab above to see store levels, ensure that the stores dont get depleted.

For background notes on the sabatier process see:
https://trystanlea.org.uk/zcb_sabatier_process

Energy

Total energy supply: {{ o.balance.total_supply*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Total energy demand: {{ o.balance.total_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Primary energy factor: {{ o.balance.primary_energy_factor | toFixed(2) }}

Exess energy supply: {{ o.balance.total_excess*0.0001 | toFixed(0) }} TWh

Unmet energy demand: {{ o.balance.total_unmet_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(3) }} TWh

Electricity

Total electricity supply: {{ o.supply.total_electricity_before_grid_loss*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh

Total electricity demand: {{ o.balance.total_electricity_demand*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh

Over-supply factor: {{ o.supply.total_electricity_before_grid_loss / o.balance.total_electricity_demand | toFixed(2) }}

Total excess electricity: {{ o.balance.total_excess_elec*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh ({{ (100*o.balance.total_excess_elec/o.supply.total_electricity_before_grid_loss) | toFixed(0) }}%)

Total unmet electricity: {{ o.balance.total_unmet_elec*0.0001 | toFixed(1) }} TWh ({{ (100*o.balance.total_unmet_elec/o.balance.total_electricity_demand) | toFixed(0) }}%)

Grid CO2 intensity: {{ o.emissions_balance.grid_co2_intensity | toFixed(0) }} gCO2/kWh

Land & Emissions

Land available: {{ o.land_use.available | toFixed(0) }} kha

Emissions balance {{ o.emissions_balance.total | toFixed(1) }} MtC02e

Energy stack units: National TWh/yr kWh/d per household kWh/d per person

Show heat pump ambient heat sourced from air:

Industrial energy use is dealt with above at a high level and a cautious approach is taken. It is part of the scenario that we would like to develop in more detail. The following makes a start on exploring the manufacturing energy required to build key elements of the renewable energy supply infrastructure: Offshore wind, Onshore wind and Solar PV. We can get an initial indication from this of the proportion of the total industrial energy demand modelled above that would relate to the manufacture of these technologies.

For more detail on the calculations below including sources see https://trystanlea.org.uk/zcb_industry